Pity the grad students in a seminar with Vaclav Smil. Or perhaps, envy them. If they survive his intellectual blast furnace, they will emerge much stronger. In Global Catastrophes and Trends: The Next Fifty Years, Smil dismisses the faulty analysis of other senior academics, many named, with phrases such as “this is nonsense” and “entirely missing the fact.” Perhaps students receive more gentle put-downs.
The distinguished professor at the University of Manitoba wields a relentless scourge against shibboleths and nostrums. He abhors shallowness and worships rigour. Above all Smil dismisses forecasts in general and even the very idea that humanity can make meaningful prognostications about catastrophes and trends between now and 2050. The core message of his book is that the only thing certain on this planet is uncertainty. The best course is to figure out what is truly worth worrying about over the coming half century—he would say nuclear mega-war and...
Peter Calamai has been a foreign correspondent, national reporter and editorial page editor for Southam newspapers and, most recently, science reporter and columnist for the Toronto Star. He is now freelancing to avoid the catastrophe of retirement.
Advertisement
Advertisement