Half-Full or Half-Empty?

I appreciated and enjoyed Peter Calamai’s review in the May 2006 issue. Undoubtedly, there are mistakes in my book. But Calamai makes me look better than I deserve by erring himself in the two mistakes he takes issue with. He calls a “schoolboy howler” my statement on page 176 that “warming may also melt part of the polar icecaps, causing sea level rise.” My scientist colleagues confirm the veracity of this statement. Because some of the Arctic and most of the Antarctic polar icecaps are over land, their melting will indeed raise sea levels. Calamai then notes that my focus on greenhouse gas emissions in 2010 when discussing the Kyoto protocol deadline, instead of the average of 2008–2012, is “factually wrong” and “makes a huge difference.” Actually, it does not. Because of the inertia in a given economy’s infrastructure, buildings, plant and equipment, greenhouse gases must be trending downward in 2008 for a country such as Canada to hit its Kyoto target in 2010 and they will still be falling in 2012. This means that emissions in 2010 will be very close to the average of emissions over the period 2008–12. I can confirm this from my energy-economy model of Canada and those of my colleagues in other countries. To avoid unnecessary and confusing pedantry, many analysts therefore focus just on 2010 when discussing emissions commitments under Kyoto.

Mark Jaccard
Vancouver, British Columbia

Peter Calamai’s review of the Tim Flannery and Marc Jaccard books on climate change is bang-on. While Flannery’s The Weather Makers is a useful attempt to wake up those who are not aware of or convinced of the extent to which climate change is likely to affect our ecosystem, Jaccard’s Sustainable Fossil Fuels is a rare gem that provides a rigorous scientific, economic and social analysis of the energy-climate-environment relationship, followed by a carefully considered policy prescription that is as ideology-free as I have seen.

Mark Jaccard’s title alone sets off alarm bells in green circles, and it has probably prevented many from picking up the book. How can the use of fossil fuels ever be considered “sustainable”?

If you want to know, you really have to read the book. Jaccard so carefully and objectively sets out his premises, his research, his criteria and his ultimate policy prescriptions that I could never do his argument justice in a mere 400 words. Suffice it to say that I found Jaccard’s recent speech to an intrigued and skeptical Ottawa audience so provocative that I had to buy a copy for myself and read it carefully from introduction to index.

My conclusion: Jaccard has delivered a rigorous examination of all aspects of the energy debate. He has set out an approach that should provide people (in both developed and developing countries) with a safer, cleaner, more reliable supply of energy for centuries to come, and in a way that is as politically, socially and environmentally acceptable as currently possible. His argument addresses all aspects of the debate: the availability and extent of primary energy sources, portability, storage, safety, cost and impacts on habitat, air, water, soil, landscapes and more.

His approach is free of preconceived solutions and examines all options, even those like nuclear and coal, which green-minded individuals might reflexively rule out. And that is the key to reading and appreciating this book, just as it is the key to engaging in a serious examination of a way to move towards greater sustainability. Opening this book requires the reader to set aside assumptions, but not deeply held values. Jaccard gives us a compelling set of criteria for what he feels constitutes a sustainable energy system, then scrutinizes all the options currently available, leaving us with an initial road map—one to which any political party would do well to give thorough consideration.

David Chernushenko
Green Party of Canada
Toronto, Ontario