The Superpower Next Door

At the height of NAFTA renegotiations last summer, I found myself facing a recurring question: What could Canada do? The Trump administration had raised tariffs on steel and aluminum in May 2018, with renegotiations well under way, and it had refused to exempt Canada, its biggest supplier of both. Trump called our genteel prime minister meek, weak, and dishonest. Almost daily, his administration threatened to escalate the trade conflict and exit NAFTA altogether, upending the most important trade relationship of our two countries.

McGill undergraduates asked me the question during lectures, as did journalists on live television, when I was brought on wearing my political scientist hat. No matter who asked, they were hoping for some cunning strategy, a point of leverage that Canada might exploit, a winning...