China’s Moment

Let’s start with a hypothetical: It’s early 2022. Countries around the world are beginning to recover from nearly two years of social distancing, illness, and a shocking amount of death. Mass vaccination for COVID‑19 has been under way globally for several months and — gradually, carefully — people are emerging from their isolation to resume a more ­normal rhythm to their lives.

Slowly, as friends, families, and colleagues gather to share their stories and remember the dead, conversations turn to the other pandemic casualty: the devastated economies of those countries where it hit the hardest. As governments dealt with an unprecedented halt to economic activity, they opened the spending taps; central banks printed money and bought bonds. Now, the bills are coming due. Faced with a mix of significant tax hikes, spending cuts, currency devaluations, and other unpleasant fiscal and monetary measures, people all over wonder if their countries should take advantage of...